2024’s first partial government shutdown has been avoided – for now. Just like the November 2023 deadline, Congress was within days of the January 2024 deadline for a shutdown.

The last government shutdown occurred during the Trump Administration starting on Dec. 21, 2018, and lasted until Jan. 25, 2019. Trump was standing firm on his demands on border security in this particular bill, leading to the longest shutdown in history. When all was said and done, it was reported that about 800,000 people went without two full paychecks – putting the families in a position to default on rent, run out of food, and lose childcare due to cost.

Read More: What is a government shutdown? (Source: the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)

This time around in January 2024, the burden of negotiating a Continuing Resolution went to the current Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, who reached across the aisle to work with Democrats. On January 18th, Congress had enough votes to pass a Continuing Resolution.

“The new Continuing Resolution would preserve Johnson’s “laddered” approach by keeping the two separate funding deadlines intact, extending them from Jan. 19 and Feb. 2 to March 1 and March 8, respectively.”  (Fox News)

Some Republicans were pushing back, saying that any deal should be rejected if it would bolster President Joe Biden’s poll numbers ahead of the presidential election. They also do not want to act on border security yet and just wait until the next president, assumingly Trump, to do it for better approval ratings.

“Let me tell you, I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating,” Rep. Troy Nehls, a Texas Republican, told CNN. “I will not help the Democrats try to improve this man’s dismal approval ratings. I’m not going to do it.” – CNN.

What could happen? Re-visiting the 2019 partial government shutdown

The last shutdown serves as a solid case study to learn from so that military families and other federal workers could start making financial plans should a shutdown take place soon. Here are just a few of the scenarios that have happened in 2019 that are likely to happen again if there is another shutdown.

From TSA agents to air traffic Controllers, A government shutdown would severely impact air travel for everyone.

On January 25th, 2019, only ten air traffic controllers were absent on the same day. The result? Travel was temporarily shut down at New York La Guardia airport and caused other major delays at some of the biggest airports in the country. With significantly fewer TSA agents, security lines were hours long.

A government shutdown would leave U.S. borders vulnerable

Republicans wanted tough immigration, and Democrats gave in. The far-right MAGA Republicans wanted tough immigration. Instead, they have threatened to intentionally shut down the government because they don’t want anyone to work with Democrats and give Biden any leverage for being successful.

Behind the scenes, one of the toughest border policies was negotiated and agreed to by the Democrats – and more seasoned Congresspeople knew it was the best that the Republicans would get policy-wise for now.

“This represents the most favorable budget agreement Republicans have achieved in over a decade“

Johnson wrote in a letter to his House GOP colleagues on January 7. – Newsweek

Republicans’ desire for hardline immigration policies is clashing with their commitment to deny the Biden administration any sort of victory – Rolling Stone Magazine

“Over 19,000 Unpaid U.S. Border Patrol Agents and 25,000 Unpaid Office of Field Operations Officers: CBP agents and officers working at over 300 ports of entry and protecting more than 6,000 miles of border under challenging circumstances would be required to continue performing their vital missions without pay.”

FACT SHEET: Impact of a Government Shutdown on the DHS Workforce

If a shutdown were to ever happen, 72% of the Department of Homeland Security workforce would be required to work without a paycheck. The Department of Homeland Security reported the following as what is most vulnerable should we go into a shutdown:

• Safeguarding and securing our borders;
• Processing, detaining, and removing individuals who have unlawfully entered the United States
• Seizing illegal narcotics like fentanyl;
• Identifying, disrupting, and dismantling criminal operations that smuggle weapons, drugs, and migrants;
• Combating child exploitation and child predators;
• Identifying and arresting human traffickers;
• Conducting search and rescue operations;

Military personnel Would have to work without pay leaving military families in dire situations.

“Hardship for nearly 40,000 Active Military Personnel: The dedicated men and women of the U.S. Coast Guard will only be compensated for their unpaid work if a specific appropriation is passed, unlike all other military service branches. Additionally, unlike civilian employees, they are not able to file for interim support such as unemployment benefits to supplement their income until an appropriation is passed. This creates the most significant hardship for the U.S. Coast Guard’s enlisted service members.”

– FACT SHEET: Impact of a Government Shutdown on the DHS Workforce

Small Businesses Would Lose Out on More Than $100 Million in Critical Financing Every Day

The American Dream of starting a small business will come to a halt during a shutdown, as the Small Business Administration will have to stop processing new business loans, while also “losing the ability to purchase critical real estate or equipment, losing out on business deals and opportunities, and being forced into high-interest, price-gouging loans.”

These loans include 7(a) and 504 loans, and if the government shuts down, applications cannot be reviewed. The breakdown of each state’s loss of funding to small businesses per day for a closer look at what will no longer go to small businesses for day-to-day operations, and those getting ready to start a business will have to put their dream on hold.

It would take longer to get your tax return

While the IRS has weathered the storm from previous shutdowns, a 2024 shutdown comes with the additional stress of being during tax return season. Back in 2013, a shutdown had a huge impact on the IRS, and half of the employees who were not going to be paid were asked to return to work. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reports current and past scenarios:

“Internal Revenue Service (IRS): Due to funds provided in the Inflation Reduction Act, essential IRS operations would continue and roughly one-third of its nearly 90,000 employees would be exempt from furlough. In 2013, a backlog of 1.2 million income and Social Security number verification requests delayed mortgage and other loan approvals, and billions of dollars of tax refunds were also delayed. At least 26,000 furloughed IRS employees were recalled to work during the 2018-2019 shutdown in preparation for tax season, but 14,000 did not show up to work without pay.”

A government shutdown would cut spending from programs that provide mothers with food, formula, and other necessities for raising healthy babies.

If Congress fails to meet the deadline for the shutdown, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) States will have to deny services to mothers and young children, It is estimated that two million parents and young children could be turned away from WIC by September 2024, including the lives of newborns conceived after the abortion ban, increasing strain on the system, and leaving them with no promises of necessities or food from the WIC program.

Moving Forward

Congress was successful at pushing their deadline out to March 1 and the second deadline to March 8, but Mike Johnson may soon be facing the same fate as former Speaker Kevin McCarthy with rumors of another motion to vacate.

Referenced articles/timelines worth the read:

Full List of Republicans Who Voted Against Mike Johnson’s Shutdown Bill

Follow the timeline Here of the government shutdown of 2023-2024, publishing ongoing updates of where American citizens could end up.

Read the IRS FY24 Lapse Plan For the Government Shutdown

References within the article are hyperlinked to legitimate sources.

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